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UPSC 2024 GS-I · 10 marks · 150 words

What is the concept of a 'demographic winter'? Is the world moving towards such a situation? Elaborate.

'जनसांख्यिकीय शीत' की अवधारणा क्या है? क्या विश्व ऐसी स्थिति की ओर बढ़ रहा है? विस्तारपूर्वक समझाइए।

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  • Definition: sustained below-replacement fertility (TFR < 2.1) producing shrinking, ageing populations
  • Evidence: South Korea TFR ~0.7, Japan, China's first decline since 1961, most of Europe; ~2/3 of humanity now lives in sub-replacement countries
  • Counter-evidence: sub-Saharan Africa's high TFR; world population still growing to ~10.3 bn peak (UN WPP 2024)
  • Consequences: dependency ratios, labour shortage, pension stress — Japan as case
  • India angle: TFR 2.0 (NFHS-5), demographic dividend window with ageing after ~2050

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